After the start of the protests in March 2011 the brutal suppression war of Bashar al-Assad against his own folk is now lasting for more than two years. 'Shoot on everything that moves' was said having been the command of Assad when he could no more keep the protests under control. That way government troops have shot on men women and children. Even injured people were tortured in the military hospital with lashes and electric cables after having been brought there by force. In the beginning the situation seemed to be on the side of the Free Syrian Army; thousands went on the street saying that the Free Syrian Army would protect them; parts of the military deserted. Several acts of revenge by the regime did occur frequently. The people hadbeen staying in their houses and were attacked by tanks. Still the hope for militarical support by the EU and other Arabian countries were heavily disappointed. Instead of military support the EU did limit itself to humanitarian aid; however the response of Assads regime was like the follows: At first they have laid mines against their refugees; later on they set the woods in fire to cut off their paths and to spot them more easily in the cleared areas. Many men fit for military service were simply executed and killed by the Syrian regime. Some of them were even caught outside the country by the Syrian intelligence service.
Because of the war crimes of Assads regime against civilians the peace negotiations were prone to fail. Without Assads offer to resign the Syrian folk could only have feared even harder suppression measures. Making Assad go into exile would have been the only option. A reform of the constitution would neither have guaranteed rebels nor civilians an end of presecution.
As a consequence of the West not supporting the FSA adequately in time combatants close to the al-Quaida (Jebhut al-Nasra) have infiltrated the country. They did participate in maintaining the resistence against the regime but did however themselves worsen the situation by displacing more than 40.000 people from the Kurdian areas into the North-Iraq and by commiting acts of revenge like against the Alawits, a minority to which Assad belongs. Currently a horrible toxic gas strike with 500 up to 1300 victims shocks the public; most of them are children. Just 15 minutes from Damaskus and the UNO inspectors the use of chemical weaupons could now be confirmed.
France had istantaneously demanded a 'reaction of strength' while the USA are yet collocating their mililtary equipment after verifying what has happened. Previous approaches like establishing a no-fly zone like over Lybia have not yet been realized. The reaction of Moscow will show how exactly a military operation could take place which has said to rethink their position. For a military action without ground forces a sudden stop of any kind of support including arm delivery to Assads regime would be highly desirable. The deployment of ground forces could pose hard problems and might invoke criticism though being quicker and possibly preventing further atrocities against civilians and a repeated usage of chemical weapons. If there is no more central power it may even be necessary to reunite and stabilize parts of the country. We may only hope that the war has not already been lasting too long and that Syria can find its way back to stable conditions. The USA and Europe have nothing to win in Syria; nonetheless it is expected to make an end to the ongoing massacre. Simply doing nothing is not an option given what has happened. Finally one thing has become clear: Assad will not resign by himself.
Yesterday Russia has sent two of its warships into the region, Iran tries to threaten, people in the free areas are demonstrating against Assad and we do not know exactly what will happen when the USA and their remaining Allies (England has withdrawn, Turkey is still up to join an effort) will enter into the war. It may be put at question whether a limited strike without making Assad fall like it was planned at last will be realizable in this way
Assad has now oficially pronounced that he would take revenge on civilians in case of an attack. That will make military action as it has been planned up to now impossible because simply intimidating Assad without making him fall will not work.
Russia would approve military action in Syria if solid evidence was given that the toxic gas strike was commited by Assad (Eavesdropped phone calls would still not be accepted as evidence.).- Kleine Zeitung, 2013-09-05.
„If the necessary provisions are not taken now, blood will flow to a much larger extent.“ thinks the president of the national coalition of the Syrian opposition Ahmad Jarba on Tuesday. On the day before he held a conversation with foreign minister Guido Westerwelle from the FDP: We understand the German position (Germany tries to push for a common position on the G-20 summit but currently does not want to participate in a military action; this even though the prospects of success for the current position should not be over-estimated, told chancellor Angela Merkel). In spite of this they hope for Germany to still politically support a military action. They see Germany as „a friend and partner of the Syrian folk“. In Syria there would be no place for Assad; nonetheless they would talk to everyone „who did not participate in killing Syrians“. There will be a political solution in the end. The influence of radical islamistic powers would be highly over-estimated by western commentators; those groups coming from abroad would not command more than 4000 Syrians. The violence of the regime must be stopped by counter-violence.
While Syria is one of the most discussed topics on the G-20 summit the pope has also contacted Assad and Russias president Wladimir Putin however condemning military action as „useless“.- 2013-09-06.
Iran surprisingly changes allegiance; Syria would already have made too many mistakes. Iran does no more threaten Israel with destruction but Hassan Rohani wishes all Jews a good jewish new year.
Russias president Wladimir Putin who continues to think that the toxic gas attack was carried out by the rebels thinks of himself accredited by the pope.
In the meanwhile Germany has released volatile information by its secret service BND about the attack: According to phone calls among other things eavesdropped by the espionage ship Oeker Assad did not command the toxic gas attacks by himself but some of his generals asked him for permission to do so when Assad thought himself in the final combat about Damaskus. A general of the Hisbolla should have admitted his responsibility for the attacks. A plausibility analysis does also say with a very high degree of certainity that the toxic gas attack would have been committed by the Assad regime because only the regime would have the means to carry it out this way.
No other service has as good sources of information in the region as the BND. Related people confirm to be proud about the important role of the BND in indirectly handing over information to the rebels to make the Assad regime fall.
However on the G-20 summit chancellor Angela Merkel has refused to follow Obama in signing a declaration of support for a limited military intervention in Syria. It may have been in fear of a further escalation of the situation. The war may still go on for long with or without a limited military intervention by the USA according to some sources of the BND. It is also unsettling that the FSA would already have given off its leadership role towards islamistic groups. Renegades would now be killed instantaneously by the Assad regime.